Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
